US holiday retail sales are forecast to reach $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion for the November-December 2025 season, according to the National Retail Federation, the first time the season has been projected to cross $1 trillion. Ecommerce is carrying a growing share of that total, and the numbers below break down where online sales, single-day records, payment methods, and returns are heading as retailers plan for 2026.
How big is the 2026 holiday ecommerce forecast?
NRF economists forecast $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion in total US holiday retail sales for November and December 2025, up 3.7% to 4.2% from 2024’s confirmed $994.1 billion. That forecast, published November 6, 2025, would mark the first time the core holiday season has crossed the $1 trillion mark. Online and non-store sales are the fastest-growing slice of that total, not just the biggest dollar figure.
Figure 1: Share of the $994.1 billion 2024 holiday season that ran through online and non-store channels. Source: National Retail Federation, January 2025 season recap.
Online and non-store sales reached $296.7 billion in 2024, up 8.6% year over year, roughly 30% of the full season. If that channel keeps outpacing total-season growth into 2025, it becomes the main driver behind NRF’s $1 trillion milestone rather than a side story to it.
How much of holiday shopping happens online versus in stores?
Online is the single most popular planned channel for the 2025 season, though it has not replaced physical retail outright. 55% of shoppers plan to buy online, ahead of grocery stores at 46%, department stores at 44%, and discount stores at 42%, according to NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics’ survey of 8,247 US adults fielded October 1 to 7, 2025. Most shoppers use more than one channel across the season rather than picking just one.
Figure 2: Planned shopping channels for the 2025 holiday season, ranked by share of shoppers. Source: NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics, October 2025 survey, n=8,247.
Warning
Treat the $1 trillion forecast as a range, not a fixed number. NRF itself frames the season as $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion, and its own past forecasts have moved by a few tenths of a percentage point once final retail data comes in. A range that wide still supports the core finding, that ecommerce is taking a growing share of a still-growing season, but a single-point headline figure would overstate the precision of the underlying forecast.
The in-person turnout numbers confirm shoppers are not choosing one channel exclusively. NRF recorded 134.9 million online shoppers against 129.5 million in-store shoppers across the five-day Thanksgiving weekend in 2025, a 9% online increase against 3% in-store growth year over year. See our Black Friday sales and shopper data for the full single-day breakdown behind that turnout.
Which single days drive the most online holiday revenue?
Cyber Monday, not Black Friday, remains the single biggest online shopping day of the year. Black Friday 2025 online sales reached $11.8 billion, up 9.1% from $10.8 billion in 2024, while Cyber Monday pulled in $14.25 billion, up 7.1% year over year, according to Adobe Analytics, which tracks more than 1 trillion visits to US retail websites. Both figures set new records for their respective days.
The bigger shift in 2025 was not in the dollar totals but in how shoppers arrived at retail sites. Adobe recorded traffic referred by AI tools and chatbots up 805% year over year on Black Friday 2025 compared with Black Friday 2024, a sign that a meaningful share of holiday ecommerce shoppers are now researching gifts through AI assistants before ever landing on a retailer’s own page. That is a genuinely new variable in the online holiday forecast, and one that older forecasting models were not built to account for.
Average per-person spending also climbed. NRF recorded $337.86 per shopper across the five-day Thanksgiving weekend in 2025, up from $315.56 in 2024, with gift purchases making up roughly two-thirds of that total. For the full picture of what shoppers plan to spend across the entire season, not just Thanksgiving weekend, see our Christmas shopping spend data for 2026.
How are shoppers paying for holiday ecommerce purchases?
Buy now, pay later has moved from a niche checkout option to a mainstream payment method in just two years, and that shift changes how a retailer needs to think about refund timing.
43% of consumers say they have used or plan to use buy now, pay later for 2025 holiday purchases, according to Experian’s October 2025 survey of 1,002 consumers, more than double the 20% who said the same in a comparable 2023 survey. Adoption is highest among prime working-age shoppers: more than half of consumers aged 25 to 54 report using or planning to use BNPL this season. A payment method that spreads one purchase across several future dates changes when a refund request lands relative to when the shopper actually finished paying, which is one more reason a return policy needs a clearly dated window rather than a vague one.
How many holiday ecommerce orders come back as returns?
Retailers expected 17% of 2025-2026 holiday sales to come back as returns, according to NRF and Happy Returns’ 2025 Retail Returns Landscape report, based on a survey of 2,006 consumers and 358 retailers fielded in summer 2025. Ecommerce orders return at a noticeably higher rate than the storewide average: 19.3% of online purchases come back, against a 15.8% all-channel rate across all of 2025.
Figure 3: Overall US retail return rate by year. Source: National Retail Federation and Appriss Retail (2023); National Retail Federation and Happy Returns (2024, 2025).
The gap between the 19.3% online rate and the 15.8% storewide rate is the number that matters most for anyone running an ecommerce checkout rather than a physical store. A refund policy generator that spells out the return window, condition requirements, and refund-versus-store-credit terms up front is the fastest way to have holiday ecommerce terms in writing before that volume arrives. For what happens after the season ends, see our post-Christmas returns data for 2026.
What determines whether a holiday ecommerce order qualifies for a refund?
Most online retailers apply the same basic eligibility test to a holiday order as to any other sale, even when the return window is extended for the season. Three gates decide the outcome: the return window, the item’s condition, and proof of purchase.
Figure 4: The standard eligibility test most ecommerce refund policies apply to a holiday return. Illustrative flow based on common refund policy terms, not a single named source.
Retailers that publish an extended holiday return window explicitly, rather than applying the standard year-round window silently, cut down on the disputes that otherwise surface as chargebacks or support tickets once the returns start arriving in January.
Holiday ecommerce forecast versus last year: full comparison
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Total holiday season retail sales | $994.1 billion | $1.01 to $1.02 trillion (forecast) |
| Online and non-store sales | $296.7 billion | Not broken out separately by NRF |
| Black Friday online sales | $10.8 billion | $11.8 billion |
| Cyber Monday online sales | Not directly comparable, prior-year record | $14.25 billion |
| Overall return rate | 16.9% | 15.8% (17% forecast for holiday sales specifically) |
Source: National Retail Federation (2024, 2025); Adobe Analytics (2024, 2025); NRF and Happy Returns (2024, 2025).
Figure 5: Key holiday ecommerce data points across four seasons. Sources: NRF, NRF/Appriss, NRF/Happy Returns, Adobe Analytics.
The Bottom Line
The number worth remembering going into 2026 planning is $1.01 to $1.02 trillion, NRF’s forecast for the full November-December 2025 holiday retail season and the first time that season has been projected to cross $1 trillion. Ecommerce is not just riding along with that growth, it is outpacing it: online and non-store sales grew 8.6% in 2024 against 3.8% growth for the season overall, Cyber Monday and Black Friday both set new online sales records, and AI-referred shopping traffic is now a measurable share of how shoppers arrive at a retail site at all. None of that growth comes free of returns. Online orders come back at 19.3%, well above the 15.8% storewide rate, and buy now, pay later adoption more than doubling since 2023 means refund timing now has to account for purchases that were never paid off in a single transaction. A retailer that documents the return window, condition rules, and payment-method handling before the season starts keeps more of that record volume as revenue rather than a dispute.
Frequently Asked Questions
How big is the 2026 holiday ecommerce forecast? US holiday retail sales are forecast to reach $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion for the November-December 2025 season, up 3.7% to 4.2% from 2024’s confirmed $994.1 billion, according to the National Retail Federation. It would be the first time the season has crossed $1 trillion.
How much of holiday sales happen online? Online and non-store sales reached $296.7 billion in 2024, up 8.6% year over year and about 30% of the full $994.1 billion season, according to NRF’s January 2025 recap. 55% of shoppers say they plan to buy online this season, ahead of any single in-store channel.
Which day generates the most online holiday revenue? Cyber Monday, not Black Friday. Cyber Monday 2025 online sales reached $14.25 billion, up 7.1% year over year, ahead of Black Friday’s $11.8 billion, up 9.1%, according to Adobe Analytics.
What percentage of holiday ecommerce orders get returned? Retailers expected a 17% return rate on 2025-2026 holiday sales overall, and online orders return at 19.3% versus a 15.8% all-channel rate for 2025, according to NRF and Happy Returns’ 2025 Retail Returns Landscape report.
Sources and References
- National Retail Federation. (2025). “NRF Expects Holiday Sales to Surpass $1 Trillion for the First Time in 2025.” Forecast published November 6, 2025.
- National Retail Federation. (2025). “NRF Says Holiday Season Was a Notable Success as Consumers Came Out to Spend.” 2024 season recap, published January 16, 2025. Online and non-store sales of $296.7 billion, up 8.6%.
- National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. (2025). “Consumers to Spend Second-Highest Amount on Record, According to NRF Holiday Survey.” Survey of 8,247 US adults, fielded October 1-7, 2025.
- TechCrunch. (2025). “Black Friday sets online spending record of $11.8B, Adobe says.” Reporting Adobe Analytics data, published November 29, 2025.
- Adobe. (2025). “Cyber Monday Hits Record $14.25 Billion in Online Spending.”
- National Retail Federation. (2025). “Thanksgiving Holiday Weekend Draws a Record 203 Million Shoppers.” Survey with Prosper Insights & Analytics, fielded November 26-30, 2025.
- Experian. (2025). “Buy Now, Pay Later Holiday Survey.” Survey of 1,002 consumers, conducted October 2025.
- Digital Commerce 360. (2025). “NRF: Consumers to return almost $850B in merchandise in 2025.” Reporting NRF and Happy Returns’ 2025 Retail Returns Landscape survey of 2,006 consumers and 358 retailers.
- National Retail Federation and Appriss Retail. (2024). “2023 Consumer Returns in the Retail Industry.” Total 2023 return rate of 14.5% of sales.
Note: All figures verified as of August 2026. Holiday ecommerce forecasts and return figures are refreshed at least twice a year as NRF, Adobe, and Experian publish updated data.
