Retailers expected 17% of holiday sales to come back as returns in the 2025-2026 season, according to NRF and Happy Returns’ 2025 Retail Returns Landscape report, based on a survey of 2,006 consumers and 358 retailers fielded in summer 2025. That is roughly one in six gifts, and online orders return at an even higher rate.
The gap between what a retailer plans for and what actually lands back on the loading dock every January is the real story in the numbers below, along with what shoppers say they want from a return policy and how much of the pile is outright fraud.
How many holiday purchases get returned?
17% of holiday sales were forecast to come back as returns in the 2025 season, per NRF and Happy Returns’ 2025 Retail Returns Landscape report. That sits above the 15.8% overall return rate the same report found across all 2025 sales, and above the 16.9% overall rate NRF measured for 2024. The total value of merchandise returned across the year hit $849.9 billion in 2025, down slightly from $890 billion in 2024.
Figure 1: Share of holiday sales expected to be returned. Source: NRF and Happy Returns, 2025 Retail Returns Landscape report.
Holiday returns are not evenly distributed across channels or categories. The next section breaks out where that extra return volume is actually coming from.
Are online holiday orders returned more than in-store purchases?
Yes, by a wide margin. NRF’s 2025 report found that 19.3% of online sales are estimated to be returned, compared with a 15.8% overall return rate across all sales channels and a 17% holiday-season rate. Online orders skip the fitting room and the in-hand inspection that in-store shopping provides, so more of the decision happens after the box is already opened.
Figure 2: Return rate by sales channel and season. Source: NRF and Happy Returns, 2025 Retail Returns Landscape report.
The practical result is that stores with a large online holiday catalog should plan return-processing capacity closer to 1 in 5 orders, not 1 in 6.
How many shoppers plan to return a holiday gift?
40% of US consumers said they planned to return at least one holiday gift this season, and 91% had returned something at some point during 2025, according to Shorr Packaging’s national survey of 2,000 consumers, conducted in November 2025 and reported by WVVA in late December 2025. Regifting is common too: 54% admit to regifting an unwanted present rather than returning it, and generational data from NRF’s 2024 report found 51% of Gen Z consumers engage in bracketing, buying multiple sizes or variants with the intent to return the ones that do not fit.
Figure 3: Consumer return and regift behavior. Source: Shorr Packaging, national survey of 2,000 US consumers, December 2025.
Warning
Shorr Packaging’s figures come from a commissioned consumer survey rather than a transaction-log study like NRF’s, so treat percentages as self-reported intent and recollection rather than measured purchase data. The two source types agree directionally (returns are common and rising), which is why both are used here.
Frustration with the process itself changes behavior too: 69% of shoppers say they have kept an item they originally wanted to return because the return experience was too much hassle, and 40% say returning items makes them feel guilty.
When do most post-Christmas returns actually happen?
Post-Christmas returns cluster hard into the first two weeks of January, though the exact peak day has moved earlier over time. UPS forecast 1.9 million packages on National Returns Day, January 2, 2020, a 26% increase year over year. Since 2018, UPS has also recorded a separate pre-Christmas return surge, handling as many as 1.5 million return packages in a single day on December 19, 2018, as shoppers who ordered early started sending unwanted gifts back before the holiday itself arrived.
Figure 4: Key post-Christmas return volume milestones. Sources: UPS forecasts (2018, 2020) and NRF and Happy Returns reports (2024, 2025).
Warning
The UPS single-day package figures above are the most recent publicly reported numbers we could trace to a named UPS statement, and they date to 2018 and 2020. UPS has not published a comparable single-day package count more recently, and delivery volume patterns have shifted since then, so treat the exact package counts as directional evidence of the January return spike rather than a current-year figure.
The window keeps stretching earlier, but the underlying pattern holds: expect the heaviest return volume in the two to three weeks bracketing Christmas and New Year’s Day.
What do shoppers want from a return policy?
Shoppers are specific about what makes a return policy acceptable. 86% say free return shipping is nonnegotiable, and 75% prefer a full refund over store credit, per Shorr Packaging’s 2025 survey. In-store drop-off remains the most popular return method at 36%, ahead of third-party drop-off points at 32% and mail-back returns at 29%, a shift driven partly by the 72% of merchants who now charge a fee for at least one mail-return option, with reported fees ranging from $4 to $45. Nearly 1 in 4 shoppers say they do not check a store’s return policy before buying at all, which puts the burden on the retailer to make the terms clear at checkout rather than assume shoppers read them first.
A clear, current return policy is one of the few levers a retailer controls directly against both the return rate and the fraud rate above. You can generate a refund policy that spells out your return window, condition requirements, and refund-versus-credit terms in a few minutes, matched to how your store actually processes holiday returns.
What return policy terms actually qualify a holiday gift for a refund?
Most retailers apply the same basic eligibility test to every return, holiday or not, even when the return window is extended for gifts. The three gates that decide the outcome are the return window, the item’s condition, and proof of purchase.
Figure 5: The standard eligibility test most refund policies apply to a return. Illustrative flow based on common refund policy terms, not a single named source.
Retailers that publish these three conditions plainly, and extend the return window explicitly for gifts purchased in November and December, reduce the volume of disputed returns that show up as chargebacks or complaints in January.
How much does holiday return fraud cost retailers?
9% of all returns are estimated to be fraudulent, according to NRF’s 2025 Retail Returns Landscape report. The most common tactics retailers report seeing more of are overstated return quantities, flagged by 71% of retailers; “empty box” or “box of rocks” returns, where the box arrives without the purchased item, flagged by 65%; and decoy or counterfeit returns, flagged by 64%. In NRF’s 2024 report, 93% of retailers already named fraud and exploitative return behavior as a significant business issue.
Figure 6: Return fraud tactics on the rise, as reported by retailers. Source: NRF and Happy Returns, 2025 Retail Returns Landscape report.
Retailers are not absorbing this passively. 85% now use AI tools to detect and prevent return fraud, and NRF’s 2025 survey found retailers also leaning on seasonal return staff (43%), third-party logistics partners (49%), and extended return windows (37%) to manage the post-holiday surge.
Return rate and fraud data, 2024 versus 2025
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall return rate | 16.9% | 15.8% |
| Holiday return rate | Not broken out | 17% |
| Online return rate | Not broken out | 19.3% |
| Total returns value | $890 billion | $849.9 billion |
| Fraudulent returns share | Not broken out | 9% |
Source: NRF and Happy Returns, 2024 and 2025 Retail Returns Landscape reports.
Consumer return behavior, 2025 holiday season
| Behavior | Share of shoppers |
|---|---|
| Returned at least one item in 2025 | 91% |
| Have returned a holiday gift before | 65% |
| Plan to return a holiday gift this year | 40% |
| Admit to regifting an unwanted gift | 54% |
Source: Shorr Packaging, national survey of 2,000 US consumers, December 2025.
The Bottom Line
The single number worth remembering is 17%, the share of holiday sales NRF and Happy Returns expect to come back as returns. That is not a fluke of one bad season; it sits above the 15.8% annual average, and online orders run even higher at 19.3%. Shoppers are telling retailers plainly what would change their behavior: free return shipping, a real refund instead of store credit, and a return window they do not have to hunt for. Retailers who publish clear, gift-friendly return terms before the season starts, rather than scrambling to handle disputes in January, keep more of that 17% from turning into a chargeback or a lost customer. A refund policy generator is the fastest way to get those terms in writing before the next holiday rush arrives.
Frequently Asked Questions
What percentage of holiday purchases get returned? 17% of holiday sales were expected to be returned in the 2025-2026 season, according to NRF and Happy Returns’ 2025 Retail Returns Landscape report, based on a survey of 2,006 consumers and 358 retailers fielded in summer 2025.
How many shoppers plan to return a holiday gift? 40% of US consumers planned to return at least one holiday gift in the 2025 season, and 91% returned something over the course of the year, according to Shorr Packaging’s national survey of 2,000 consumers (December 2025).
When do most post-Christmas returns actually happen? Returns cluster in the two weeks after Christmas. UPS forecast 1.9 million packages on National Returns Day, January 2, 2020, up 26% year over year, though UPS has also recorded a pre-Christmas return peak of 1.5 million packages in a single day back in 2018.
What share of holiday returns are fraudulent? 9% of all returns are estimated to be fraudulent, and 71% of retailers report a rise in shoppers overstating return quantities, according to NRF’s 2025 Retail Returns Landscape report.
Sources and References
- National Retail Federation and Happy Returns. (2025). “2025 Retail Returns Landscape.” Survey of 2,006 consumers and 358 retailers, fielded summer 2025, published October 15, 2025.
- National Retail Federation and Happy Returns. (2024). “2024 Retail Returns to Total $890 Billion.” Survey of 2,007 consumers and 249 retailers, published December 5, 2024.
- Shorr Packaging, reported by WVVA. (2025). “40% of Shoppers Plan to Return a Holiday Gift This Year.” National survey of 2,000 US consumers, fielded November 2025, published December 29, 2025.
- Supply Chain Dive. (2019). “UPS Expects 26% Jump in Returns This Peak Season.” UPS forecast of 1.9 million packages for National Returns Day, January 2, 2020.
- Transport Topics. (2018). “UPS Holiday Package Returns Hit Peak Before Year End for First Time.” UPS data on 1.5 million return packages in a single day, December 19, 2018.
Note: All figures verified as of August 2026. Return-rate and fraud figures are refreshed at least twice a year as NRF and Happy Returns publish updated reports.
![19.3% of Online Orders Are Returned: 2026 [Benchmarks]](/_astro/ecommerce-return-rate-statistics-2026.CZg1x-y__1IyODE.webp)
