The average American shopper plans to spend $890.49 on gifts, food, decorations, and other seasonal items in 2025, the second-highest total in the National Retail Federation’s 23-year survey history. That figure comes from Prosper Insights & Analytics’ survey of 8,247 US adults, fielded October 1 to 7, 2025, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points. Below is how that spend breaks down by category, channel, timing, and payment method heading into the 2026 shopping season.
Spending intentions are only part of the story. Retailers are forecasting the total season differently from how individual shoppers describe their own budgets, and two of the largest annual surveys land on very different per-person numbers. Both sets of data matter for anyone setting a return window or refund policy before the season starts.
How much will the average person spend on Christmas shopping?
The average holiday shopper plans to spend $890.49 across three categories in 2025: $627.93 on gifts for family and friends, and $262.56 on food, candy, decorations, and greeting cards. That per-person figure is the second-highest recorded since NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics began tracking holiday spending intentions, trailing only 2024.
Figure 1: Where the $890.49 average holiday budget goes. Source: NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics, October 2025 survey.
Nearly all US adults, 91%, plan to celebrate a winter holiday this year, which is why this per-person figure scales into a trillion-dollar retail season rather than a niche gift-giving statistic. The gift-versus-seasonal-items split has stayed roughly proportional for years: gifts consistently account for about 70% of the total budget.
Is holiday spending going up or down heading into 2026?
Total US holiday retail sales are forecast to reach $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion for November and December 2025, according to NRF economists, up 3.7% to 4.2% from 2024’s confirmed $994.1 billion in core retail sales. That would mark the first time the November-December season has crossed the $1 trillion mark. Online and non-store sales were the fastest-growing channel in 2024, rising 8.6% to $296.7 billion, roughly 30% of the total season.
Figure 2: Total US holiday season retail sales, confirmed 2024 versus forecast 2025. Source: National Retail Federation, November 2025 forecast and January 2025 recap.
Warning
Not every holiday spending survey measures the same thing, and the gap between them is large enough to matter. NRF’s $890.49 figure is a disclosed-methodology consumer intentions survey (n=8,247, fielded in early October). Deloitte’s separate 2025 holiday retail survey puts expected spend at $1,595 per person, down 10% from its own 2024 figure, without breaking out sample size in its public release. Neither number is wrong. They likely scope “holiday spending” differently and survey different populations, so treat any single headline number as one lens rather than the definitive per-person figure, and compare them side by side rather than picking one to quote alone.
When do people actually do their Christmas shopping?
Shopping now starts well before Thanksgiving for a large share of the country. 42% of shoppers plan to start before November, and 63% plan to shop specifically over Thanksgiving weekend, up from 59% the prior year. NRF also recorded a record 202.9 million shoppers active between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday in 2025, plus a record 158.9 million expected for Super Saturday, the last Saturday before Christmas.
Figure 3: How shoppers split across the holiday shopping timeline. Source: NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics, October 2025 survey.
Even with all that early activity, shopping drags on for most people. As of early December 2025, the average shopper had completed just 51% of their holiday shopping, and 60% of all shoppers say they expect to finish sometime in December rather than before it starts. A refund policy that clearly states return windows relative to the shipping date, not just the purchase date, matters more in a season where half of all shopping happens in the final weeks.
Do people shop online or in stores for Christmas?
Online shopping leads every individual channel, but it has not replaced physical retail. 55% of shoppers plan to buy online, ahead of grocery stores at 46%, department stores at 44%, and discount stores at 42%. Most shoppers use more than one channel across the season rather than picking just one.
Figure 4: Planned shopping channel mix, 2025 season. Source: NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics, October 2025 survey.
The in-person turnout numbers back this up on the ground. NRF recorded 85.7 million online shoppers and 80.3 million in-store shoppers on Black Friday 2025 alone, plus 75.9 million online shoppers on Cyber Monday. Black Friday remained the single busiest day for both online and in-store combined, which is worth noting for anyone assuming the season has gone fully digital. Retailers running both channels need a refund policy that covers both purchase paths clearly, since return eligibility, restocking fees, and shipping-cost rules often differ between an in-store and an online order from the same retailer.
How are shoppers paying for holiday purchases in 2025?
Buy now, pay later has moved from a niche option to a mainstream payment method in just two years. 43% of consumers say they have used or plan to use BNPL for holiday shopping in 2025, according to Experian’s October 2025 survey of 1,002 consumers, more than double the 20% who said the same in a comparable 2023 survey. Adoption is highest among prime working-age consumers: over half of shoppers aged 25 to 54 report using or planning to use BNPL this season.
Figure 5: BNPL adoption for holiday shopping, two-year change. Source: Experian, October 2025 survey, n=1,002.
Experian’s data also found late payment rates on BNPL plans holding roughly steady compared with 2023, with middle-aged borrowers missing payments more often than younger or older age groups. A payment method that spreads a purchase across several dates changes when a return or refund request lands relative to when the shopper actually finished paying, which is one more reason a clearly dated return window matters more than ever.
Are shoppers changing their habits because of prices and the economy?
Price concern is running high this season. 85% of shoppers expect higher prices because of tariffs, according to NRF’s October 2025 survey, and Deloitte’s separate survey found 77% expect higher prices overall and 57% anticipate the economy weakening in the next six months, the most negative outlook Deloitte has recorded since 1997. Deloitte also found 58% of shoppers describe the holiday season itself as stressful.
Shoppers are responding by researching more before buying. Deloitte found 33% of shoppers plan to use generative AI somewhere in their shopping journey, more than double the 2024 figure, rising to 43% among Gen Z shoppers, who are also the most likely generation to seek deals at 95% and to shop with influencer and social media inspiration at 74%.
Figure 6: Key shifts in holiday shopping behavior. Sources: Experian, Deloitte, NRF, 2023-2025 surveys.
NRF versus Deloitte: two major holiday spending surveys compared
| Metric | NRF / Prosper Insights & Analytics | Deloitte |
|---|---|---|
| Average per-person spend, 2025 | $890.49 | $1,595 |
| Change from 2024 | Second-highest on record | Down 10% year over year |
| Disclosed sample size | 8,247 US adults | Not disclosed in public release |
| Survey window | October 1-7, 2025 | Fielded ahead of October 14, 2025 publication |
Both figures are legitimate, primary-sourced surveys from established organizations. They are not directly comparable line items, since they likely define “holiday spending” and survey different populations differently, which is exactly why this article cites both rather than picking whichever number sounds bigger.
The Bottom Line
The number that matters most for planning a 2026 season is $890.49, the average per-person spend NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics recorded from a disclosed sample of 8,247 US adults in October 2025, translating into a forecast $1.01 to $1.02 trillion season overall. Shoppers are starting earlier, splitting their purchases across more payment methods including buy now, pay later, and using more channels than any single-number average can capture. For a retailer, the practical implication is that return and refund terms now have to work across a longer shopping window, more payment types, and both online and in-store purchase paths at once. A refund policy generated to cover those variations clearly is one of the few things a merchant fully controls heading into the season.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much does the average person spend on Christmas shopping? $890.49 per person in 2025, according to the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics’ survey of 8,247 US adults fielded October 1 to 7, 2025. That splits into $627.93 on gifts and $262.56 on food, decorations, and other seasonal items.
Is holiday spending going up or down in 2026? Total US holiday retail sales are forecast to reach $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion for November and December 2025, up 3.7% to 4.2% from 2024’s $994.1 billion, per NRF. Per-person spending intentions of $890.49 are down slightly from 2024 but still the second-highest on record.
Do most people shop online or in stores for Christmas? Online edges out every single in-store channel. 55% of holiday shoppers plan to buy online, ahead of grocery stores at 46%, department stores at 44%, and discount stores at 42%, per NRF’s October 2025 survey.
How many shoppers use buy now, pay later for the holidays? 43% of consumers say they have used or plan to use buy now, pay later for 2025 holiday purchases, according to Experian’s October 2025 survey of 1,002 consumers, up sharply from 20% in a similar 2023 survey.
Sources and References
- National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. (2025). “Consumers to Spend Second-Highest Amount on Record, According to NRF Holiday Survey.” Survey of 8,247 US adults, fielded October 1-7, 2025, margin of error plus or minus 1.1 percentage points.
- National Retail Federation. (2025). “NRF Expects Holiday Sales to Surpass $1 Trillion for the First Time in 2025.” Forecast published November 6, 2025.
- National Retail Federation. (2025). “NRF Says Holiday Season Was a Notable Success as Consumers Came Out to Spend.” 2024 season recap, published January 16, 2025.
- National Retail Federation. (2025). “Winter Holiday Data and Trends.” Shopper turnout and shopping-progress figures, 2025 season.
- Deloitte. (2025). “2025 Holiday Retail Survey.” Published October 14, 2025.
- Experian. (2025). “Buy Now, Pay Later Holiday Survey.” Survey of 1,002 consumers, conducted October 2025.
Note: All figures verified as of October 2026. Holiday spending intentions and payment behavior shift with each season, so headline figures here are refreshed at least twice a year.
