US social commerce sales are forecast to cross $100 billion in 2026, according to eMarketer’s US Social Commerce Forecast, as TikTok, Instagram, and Facebook keep turning scrolling into checkout. Global social commerce sales are projected to reach $819.8 billion in 2025, up nearly 20% from the year before. For any business selling through a social storefront, the numbers below show both the size of the opportunity and a paperwork gap many sellers are leaving open.
How big is the US social commerce market in 2026?
US social commerce sales are forecast to surpass $100 billion in 2026, per eMarketer’s US Social Commerce Forecast, first published in November 2024. eMarketer’s own chart framing puts the milestone plainly: “US Social Commerce Sales Will Surpass $100 Billion in 2026.” Forbes’ July 2025 analysis of the same eMarketer data put the category at more than 8% of total US e-commerce sales, with beauty products alone running far higher.
Figure 1: US social commerce sales, actual and forecast. Source: Capital One Shopping research, compiled from eMarketer and Statista data, updated November 2025.
Warning
Treat the exact year the US crosses $100 billion as directional, not fixed. eMarketer’s original November 2024 chart forecasts the milestone for 2026, but Capital One Shopping’s compiled figures, refreshed a year later, already put 2025 sales at $104.6 billion. Forecasts in this category are being revised upward fast, so the honest read is “somewhere around 2025 to 2026,” not a single certain date.
Either way, the trajectory is the same: social commerce has moved from a marketing experiment to a nine-figure-a-year sales channel in under five years.
How fast is TikTok Shop growing in the US?
TikTok Shop is the clearest driver of that growth. The platform’s US buyer base grew from 36.0 million in 2023 to 71.4 million in 2025, a 24.5% year-over-year jump, according to eMarketer and Statista data compiled by Capital One Shopping. Projections put that figure at 94.2 million by 2028, a 10.7% average annual growth rate.
Figure 2: US TikTok Shop buyer growth. Source: eMarketer and Statista data, compiled by Capital One Shopping, updated November 2025.
The seller side grew even faster. Charm.io’s dataset, tracked by RetailTouchPoints, shows the number of US TikTok shops rose from 4,450 at the platform’s September 2023 soft launch to 231,334 by July 2025, a 5,000% increase. Shops that actually sold something grew from 2,732 to 90,495 over the same window, a 3,212% increase. Monthly US gross merchandise value climbed from $15.1 million to $1.1 billion, while the average unit price on the platform fell 10%, from $21.45 to $19.11, as competition and lower-cost listings pulled prices down. Globally, TikTok Shop’s quarterly GMV hit $19 billion in Q3 2025, putting it within striking distance of eBay’s $20.1 billion, according to eMarketer.
Does a social storefront need its own Terms and Conditions?
Yes, and this is the gap most social sellers miss. A platform’s seller agreement, such as TikTok Shop’s Seller Terms or Meta’s Commerce Policies, only governs what happens inside that app’s checkout. The moment a seller takes an order through their own website, a direct message, or a QR code that leads off-platform, the platform’s terms no longer apply to that transaction.
Figure 3: The coverage test for a social commerce seller’s own Terms and Conditions. Source: synthesized from published TikTok Shop and Meta commerce policy structures.
With 90,495 US TikTok shops now making sales and most small sellers also running a Shopify page or a direct-to-consumer site alongside their social storefront, that coverage gap touches a large and fast-growing group of businesses. A seller can generate a Terms and Conditions page that covers their own site, off-platform orders, and dispute terms in a few minutes, rather than relying on a platform agreement that stops at the app’s edge.
What percentage of shoppers actually buy through social media?
45.5% of US TikTok users made at least one purchase through the platform in 2025, up 3.9 percentage points from 2024, per eMarketer and Statista data compiled by Capital One Shopping. That share is projected to reach 46.1% by 2028.
Figure 4: Purchase conversion among US TikTok users. Source: eMarketer and Statista data, compiled by Capital One Shopping, 2025.
Trust still separates buyers from browsers. In a 2024 Aftership and Ipsos survey of 1,000 US adults (fielded September 18 to 20, 2024, accurate to within 4 percentage points), 79% of shoppers said they use social media weekly, but only 31% called it their main source for trends and shopping. When asked what would move them to buy more, 44% named greater trust in the platform and 28% named better security, ahead of price. This mirrors a broader shift toward trusted checkout methods generally; see our mobile wallet statistics for 2026 for how digital wallets are absorbing a growing share of in-app payments as shoppers look for a familiar, secure way to pay.
Which product categories lead social commerce spending?
Health and beauty and apparel dominate TikTok Shop’s US sales, but the gap between categories is narrower than the headline “beauty-first” story suggests once spending is measured per buyer rather than by category share.
| Category | Avg. spend per buyer (2024) |
|---|---|
| Apparel and accessories | $64.00 |
| Health and beauty | $63.70 |
| Food | $43.20 |
| Household care | $23.60 |
Source: NielsenIQ data, compiled by Capital One Shopping, 2024.
Beauty’s real strength shows up at the category level rather than the platform level: social and e-commerce channels combined now drive more than 50% of global beauty sales, according to Forbes’ March 2025 analysis, well ahead of every other product vertical tracked.
This growth is not limited to smartphones alone; it sits inside a broader shift toward mobile as the default shopping surface. See our mobile commerce statistics for 2026 for how that plays out in overall online traffic and cart behavior.
Social commerce by the numbers
| Metric | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| US social commerce sales, forecast for 2026 | $100 billion+ | eMarketer, November 2024 forecast |
| US social commerce sales, 2025 estimate | $104.6 billion | eMarketer/Statista, via Capital One Shopping |
| Global social commerce sales, 2025 | $819.8 billion | eMarketer/Statista, via Capital One Shopping |
| US TikTok Shop buyers, 2025 | 71.4 million | eMarketer/Statista, via Capital One Shopping |
TikTok Shop’s US milestones show how quickly that scale was built.
Figure 5: TikTok Shop’s US growth timeline. Sources: RetailTouchPoints/Charm.io data and eMarketer’s US Social Commerce Forecast.
The Bottom Line
The headline number, $100 billion in US social commerce sales for 2026, is less important than what is driving it: a single platform, TikTok Shop, going from 4,450 US storefronts to 231,334 in two years while its buyer base nearly doubled. That speed is exactly why the legal side lags behind the sales side. A seller’s TikTok Shop agreement or Instagram Commerce Policy only covers what happens inside that app, so any business also selling through its own site, DMs, or off-platform links is currently operating without terms that actually apply to those sales. Fixing that takes minutes, not months, and it closes a gap that is only getting bigger as social checkout grows.
Frequently Asked Questions
How big will the US social commerce market be in 2026? US social commerce sales are forecast to surpass $100 billion in 2026, according to eMarketer’s US Social Commerce Forecast, with the category accounting for more than 8% of total US e-commerce sales.
How many Americans buy through TikTok Shop? An estimated 71.4 million Americans shopped through TikTok Shop in 2025, up 24.5% from 2024, according to data compiled by Capital One Shopping from eMarketer and Statista. That figure is projected to reach 94.2 million by 2028.
Does a business selling through TikTok Shop or Instagram need its own Terms and Conditions? Yes. A platform’s seller agreement, such as TikTok Shop’s Seller Terms, only governs transactions made inside that app. Any business that also sells through its own website or takes orders outside the platform’s checkout needs a separate Terms and Conditions page covering that activity.
Do shoppers trust buying through social media? Trust remains the biggest barrier. In a 2024 Aftership and Ipsos survey of 1,000 US adults, 44% said they would shop through social platforms more if they trusted the platform, and 28% cited platform security as their main hesitation.
Sources and References
- eMarketer. (November 2024). “US Social Commerce Sales Will Surpass $100 Billion in 2026.” US Social Commerce Forecast 2024.
- eMarketer, Rachel Wolff. (November 17, 2025). “TikTok Shop’s $19 billion Q3 puts it within striking distance of eBay.”
- Forbes, Catherine Erdly. (July 14, 2025). “AI Is Fueling A $100 Billion Boom In Social Commerce.”
- Forbes, Clara Ludmir. (March 28, 2025). “Social And E-Commerce Now Drive More Than 50% Of Beauty Sales Globally.”
- RetailTouchPoints. (2025). “Two Years in, TikTok Shop is a Commercial Powerhouse: A Look at the Numbers.” Data from Charm.io.
- Capital One Shopping Research. (Updated November 26, 2025). “TikTok Shopping Statistics.” Compiled from eMarketer, Statista, and NielsenIQ data.
- AfterShip and Ipsos. (2024). “Shopper Sentiment Report 2024.” Ipsos poll, n=1,000 US adults 18+, fielded September 18-20, 2024, accurate to within 4 percentage points.
Note: All figures verified as of October 2026. Social commerce forecasts are revised frequently as platforms report new GMV figures, so headline numbers here are refreshed at least twice a year.
